The Third Wave
An Entrepreneur's Vision of The Future
(Part 1*)
(Part 1*)
by Steve Case
In the Preface to The Third Wave - An Entrepreneur's Vision of The Future, America Online (AOL) co-founder Steve Case builds upon Alvin Toffler's concept that humanity has experienced 3 waves or eras - the agricultural age, the post-Industrial Revolution age, and the information age. Case postulates that there have been, similarly, 3 phases of evolution of the internet era. During the First Wave, the basic infrastructure and foundation (hardware and software) were constructed for the online world. Around the start of the 21st century, the internet was "supercharged" by three developments: the creation of powerful search engines such as Google, the birth of the mobile phone movement (iPhone), and the proliferation of social networking. (7) Hence was born during the Second Wave the Internet of Things.
The Third Wave, according to Case, is now under way as a "...much broader Internet of Everything" is developing. Writes the author:
The Third Wave is the era when the Internet stops belonging to Internet companies.
It is the era in which products will require the Internet, even if the Internet doesn't
define them. It is the era when the term 'Internet-enabled' will start to sound as
ludicrous as the term 'electricity-enabled'" (8)
In The Third Wave, Steve Case sets out to both summarize the story of how the consumer Internet was born and describe what the Third Wave "...will look like and how it will unfold." (10) As well, he aims to show "...that the lessons from the First Wave of the Internet will be integral to the Third." (10)
"A Winding Path" (Chapter 1) describes Case's fits-and-starts pathway to success with AOL. After starting out in the early 80's with a computer gaming company called Control Video Corporation (CVC), Case, in 1985, helped found Quantum Computer Services, which was focused on the emerging personal computer market. The author notes that Quantum was launched despite his group having barely a million dollars in capital because "...we were able to leverage partnerships to minimize our marketing costs." (26) Partnerships, the author later argues, are just as important (or even more essential) in Third Wave success.
In March of 1992, AOL went public. Although it had only 140,000 subscribers at that time, it possessed enormous growth potential. According to Case, AOL was "...the first widespread online community", a multi-purpose service which made it possible for "...millions of people to instant message with friends" and offered "...a complete shopping mall." (43) He boasts that "...AOL was, for its time, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon, Spotify, You Tube, and Instagram combined." (43)
In Chapter 3, Steve Case describes what the Third Wave will look like in a number of sectors, including health care, education, food, and the marketplace. This blog will summarize the auhor's predictions for health care and education.
The Third Wave of the Internet will bring better preventative health care through "...hardware and software that will enable users to take the full range of vital signs on a serial basis, collecting and saving data and alerting patients and their doctors if someting is wrong." (49) The development of apps designed to monitor individual's health on a daily basis "...means being warned, at home, by your smartphone, of the clot before the stroke or the clog before the heart attack." (50) The author speculates that innovations such as these will save many lives each year and significantly reduce healthcare costs. As well, the access made possible by the Internet to population-wide data and collaboration from online medical communities will lead to better research and, more medical breakthroughs.
In a nutshell, Third Wave education will be "More personal. More individualized. More data-driven (51) While technology in the classroom during the First and Second Wave "...looked a lot like technology outside of it: students at computers, making PowerPoint decks, browsing the web...", the Third Wave will truly transform learning. (51) There will be new tools that provide portals for parents to observe, in real time, their children's learning and to interact with teachers online. As well, there will be dashboards that allow teachers to share with students online their slide decks and other learning materials and that enable students to ask questions and seek feedback. In the style of the Khan Academy, students will be able to stream lessons at home with more classroom time made available for one-on-one teacher assistance. Tablets (ie. iPads) will replace textbooks such that each child will have:
a virtual tutor ...tablets that track not only whether a child is learning but how
he learns best. As the "textbook" gets smarter, so will the student's teacher,
who will have tools to leverage the data, and the time to work with students in
classroom one-on-one. Teachers will create short, targeted interventions that
keep students on track or provide opportunities for them to go deeper in areas
of interest and strength. (53)
The Third Wave is the era when the Internet stops belonging to Internet companies.
It is the era in which products will require the Internet, even if the Internet doesn't
define them. It is the era when the term 'Internet-enabled' will start to sound as
ludicrous as the term 'electricity-enabled'" (8)
 |
| The iPhone helped launch 'The Internet of Things' |
"A Winding Path" (Chapter 1) describes Case's fits-and-starts pathway to success with AOL. After starting out in the early 80's with a computer gaming company called Control Video Corporation (CVC), Case, in 1985, helped found Quantum Computer Services, which was focused on the emerging personal computer market. The author notes that Quantum was launched despite his group having barely a million dollars in capital because "...we were able to leverage partnerships to minimize our marketing costs." (26) Partnerships, the author later argues, are just as important (or even more essential) in Third Wave success.
In March of 1992, AOL went public. Although it had only 140,000 subscribers at that time, it possessed enormous growth potential. According to Case, AOL was "...the first widespread online community", a multi-purpose service which made it possible for "...millions of people to instant message with friends" and offered "...a complete shopping mall." (43) He boasts that "...AOL was, for its time, Google, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon, Spotify, You Tube, and Instagram combined." (43)
The Third Wave of the Internet will bring better preventative health care through "...hardware and software that will enable users to take the full range of vital signs on a serial basis, collecting and saving data and alerting patients and their doctors if someting is wrong." (49) The development of apps designed to monitor individual's health on a daily basis "...means being warned, at home, by your smartphone, of the clot before the stroke or the clog before the heart attack." (50) The author speculates that innovations such as these will save many lives each year and significantly reduce healthcare costs. As well, the access made possible by the Internet to population-wide data and collaboration from online medical communities will lead to better research and, more medical breakthroughs.
In a nutshell, Third Wave education will be "More personal. More individualized. More data-driven (51) While technology in the classroom during the First and Second Wave "...looked a lot like technology outside of it: students at computers, making PowerPoint decks, browsing the web...", the Third Wave will truly transform learning. (51) There will be new tools that provide portals for parents to observe, in real time, their children's learning and to interact with teachers online. As well, there will be dashboards that allow teachers to share with students online their slide decks and other learning materials and that enable students to ask questions and seek feedback. In the style of the Khan Academy, students will be able to stream lessons at home with more classroom time made available for one-on-one teacher assistance. Tablets (ie. iPads) will replace textbooks such that each child will have:
a virtual tutor ...tablets that track not only whether a child is learning but how
he learns best. As the "textbook" gets smarter, so will the student's teacher,
who will have tools to leverage the data, and the time to work with students in
classroom one-on-one. Teachers will create short, targeted interventions that
keep students on track or provide opportunities for them to go deeper in areas
of interest and strength. (53)
For entrepreneurs, Case offers, in Chapter 4, advice in the form of the Three P's. To begin with, he states that "...the success of a company [in the Third Wave] will depend laregly on the partnerships its leadership can forge - sometimes even with the very organizations they are trying to disrupt." (81) Among other advantages, partners can give a company greater credibility. The second of Case's P's is policy. He writes that Third Wave entrepreneurs must work with governments and have "...a fluent grasp on the policy issues they will encounter." (89) Lastly, successful entrepreneurs of the Third Wave must possess perseverance, pursuing "...big impact ideas with a sense of urgency - but also methodically and diplomatically." (91) Adaptability will also be an important ingredient.
In Chapter 6, the author emphasizes that successful Third Wave companies will be those which embrace change and disruption. Noting that the "biggest mistake" Third Wave companies can make is to do nothing in a rapidly changing world (96), he maintains that companies need to recruit, retain, and give voice to innovators. They must also "embrace self-disruption", challenging their own status-quo ways of thinking and established products and services. (97) Case uses an effective sports analogy to emphasize his belief that Third Wave companies must "play offence" by not only staying current with change but by aggressively anticipating further changes to come:
Take a lesson from the Wayne Gretzky playbook; he was a great hockey player
because he didn't focus on where the puck was, but where it was going. (100)
In Chapter 6, the author emphasizes that successful Third Wave companies will be those which embrace change and disruption. Noting that the "biggest mistake" Third Wave companies can make is to do nothing in a rapidly changing world (96), he maintains that companies need to recruit, retain, and give voice to innovators. They must also "embrace self-disruption", challenging their own status-quo ways of thinking and established products and services. (97) Case uses an effective sports analogy to emphasize his belief that Third Wave companies must "play offence" by not only staying current with change but by aggressively anticipating further changes to come:
Take a lesson from the Wayne Gretzky playbook; he was a great hockey player
because he didn't focus on where the puck was, but where it was going. (100)
* A review of the 2nd half of The Third Wave will be featured in my next blog post (early August)
